Modelling the Impact of Modern Energy Services and Technologies Adoption on Final Energy Demand in Ghana

Abstract

The uneven distribution of fossil fuels and other energy resources, which most economies currently rely on, generates many questions as to whether the current energy transition targets can meet future energy demands. Despite Ghana’s endowment in rich energy resources, the economy still encounters significant challenges in achieving universal access to sustainable, affordable, modern, and reliable energy services. There is no clear understanding regarding the potential impact of transitioning to modern energy services on final energy demand of Ghana. Using 2019 as the base year, the study modelled the effects of adopting modern energy services and technologies on final energy demand in Ghana. The study used cross-sectional data from 2019 and developed scenarios to forecast future energy demand of Ghana. The Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED-2) was used to project the future final energy demand from 2019 to 2070. The findings indicated a high surge in total future final energy demand across all scenarios. The study revealed that while penetration of modern ES is more efficient, their adoption can lead to high overall energy consumption and energy per capita due to greater convenience and higher usage rates. The study recommends that energy efficiency technologies must be complemented with attitudinal change to prevent the rebound effect from efficiency measures.